Champions League Preview (Part 1)

After a long lapse between final group stage games and the start of knockout fixtures, the Champions League is ready to resume this week, with the round of 16 knockout phase taking place Tuesday and Wednesday. There are great matchups across the board. The last 16 clubs remaining in Europe's ultimate club competition all carry compelling storylines into this phase. Let's try to label them into three categories (with license to alter and edit later) and then look at the actual matchups individually and try to make some predictions.



The Favorites
Real Madrid
Manchester United
AC Milan
Liverpool
Barcelona

The Next in Line
Inter Milan
Arsenal
Lyon
Chelsea
Roma
Sevilla

The Underdogs
Porto
Celtic
Schalke 04
Olympiacos
Fenerbahce

Now, before we get onto the matchups, a qualification: the above tiers may raise some eyebrows, particularly the exlusion of teams such as Inter, Arsenal, and Chelsea. Well, in order to be considered a favorite in this exercise, I decided that you must be a past winner of Champions League. And with apologies to Porto, the five favorites listed are all previous holders of the trophy and thus deserve to be considered favorites, based on experience alone (that and the fact they are all very powerful sides this year). That said, you can make the argument for ANY of the six teams in the second tier winning the title this year. And in fact, I believe either Inter or Arsenal are the real favorites at this stage. The underdogs are all poised to make a lot of noise in the form of dramatic upsets and deep runs into the semi-final or perhaps farther. They are all to be taken seriously.

So with that, it's safe to say each of the last 16 are dangerous and talented, so let's examine the ties:

FC Porto v. Schalke 04
Schalke, who are 5th in the Bundesliga, have to be the underdogs against a very in-form Porto, led by Argentines Lisandro Lopez and Luis Gonzales, and Portuguese sensation Ricardo Quaresma. But Kevin Kuranyi and Schalke will try to score goals first and keep the dangerous Porto side from getting in rhythm. Schalke may be able to get a result at home, but most likely will hope for a draw, and I see Porto going through on aggregate.
Aggregate Prediction: 3-1 Porto

Chelsea v. Olympiacos
Chelsea are overwhelming favorites to advance to the quarterfinal, but Olympiacos may very well provide a scare. It is up to Chelsea's African stars to regain their stellar form they maintained prior to leaving for the African Cup of Nations. If they do, they will win in a walk. If not, Chelsea may be forced to earn their passage in a prickly home leg at Stamford Bridge.
Aggregate Prediction: 2-0 Chelsea

Real Madrid v. RomaThis is an intriguing matchup between powerhouse clubs, but most will argue Real Madrid is the clear favorite to go through. They are still top of La Liga, and are playing well, if not erratic at times. They are clearly the deeper and more talented side, but Roma are dangerous in attack, particularly with Totti and Perotta working interplay off each other. I am going with an upset here.
Aggregate Prediction: 3-3 Roma (on away goals)

Inter Milan v. Liverpool
In any other year, this matchup would be the best of the round of 16, but this year it's not even the best matchup between Italian and English clubs (that honor goes to Milan v. Arsenal). Inter have been the best club in the world this season, utterly dominating Serie A and looking nearly invincible with their depth of talent, most of which is culled from outside Italy. But Liverpool and Rafa Benitez are never to be underestimated in European play (just ask last year's favorites Barca), and will no doubt put all their energies into Champions League success as a way of slavaging an otherwise disappointing season so far. Liverpool play a style of football more suited for Europe, and will be very tough at Anfield in tomorrow's first leg. Still, if Inter are ever to break through on the European stage, this has to be their year.
Aggregate Prediction: 3-1 Inter



Part 2 tomorrow, as well as reaction to these first leg results.