Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Champions League, Rd of 16, 2nd legs (part II)

Before we dissect Tuesday's Champions League results, we must briefly look at the three 2nd leg knockout round fixtures on tap for today. Once these matches are completed, we can look back at our results from the round of 16 (save for Inter - Liverpool, which will be concluded next week) and forecast each team's chances moving forward. The quarterfinal draw is on Friday, and we will have lots to talk about then once the matchups are set.

Chelsea v. Olimpiacos (aggregate 0-0)
Chelsea are everyone's favorite to advance from this tie, but not scoring an away goal in Athens could prove to be their undoing if they see their way to conceding tonight at Stamford Bridge. It will be interesting to watch how the Greek side approaches this match, knowing an away goal would do wonders for their chances, but also knowing that they could sit back and defend and try to advance on penalties. If they open themselves up in attack, Chelsea could show that lethal counterattacking prowess and demolish them. Avram Grant, meanwhile, is feeling the pressure at the Bridge, but will be buoyed by the recent result earned by starting Cole and Ballack (genius!). He should be able to pick the "right" eleven today and Chelsea are more than capable of breaking down Olimpiacos if they play to potential. Look for Drogba, Essien, Ballack, and Cole to have big moments, even if not all four start. I predicted 2-0 Chelsea at the outset, and I feel pretty confident about that scoreline occurring still. But what do I know, really?

Real Madrid v. Roma (aggregate 1-2)
This is a fascinating 2nd leg between two enigmatic powerhouses. Conventional wisdom should favor Real Madrid tonight, but Roma are still very capable of scoring away goals, and I also feel strongly about my 3-3 aggregate prediction holding up here, though Roma would not go through on away goals as I predicted should that scoreline come about. I predicted Roma, and must stick by it, but though they enter tonight's match protecting a lead, I don't feel any firm conviction in their prospects. I think it's a toss-up. Real are more than capable of humbling Roma and not even making this affair last into extra time, but we shall have to wait and see. My gut feeling for man-of-the-match is Fernando Gago of Real. Take it to the bank!

FC Porto v. Schalke '04 (aggregate 0-1)
Besides the debacle of a prediction in the Sevilla - Fenerbahce tie (which, it needs to be said, was the result of the tournament so far...kudos to the Turkish side for reaching their first ever CL quarterfinal), it seems I may have been most wrong about this fixture, as I evidently drastically underestimated Schalke. Though the aggregate stands at only 0-1, and Porto are more than capable of overturning that result (and even arriving at a 3-1 aggregate victory like I predicted), Schalke proved they were the better side in the first leg in Gelsenkirchen. They could have scored two or three more times, and exhibited total dominance in limiting the fierce attack of Porto. So, with Schalke holding dominant form at home, will Porto return the favor on their home pitch? And if so, will that home form amount to more than a one goal victory? They better be careful of conceding a crushing away goal as they push forward early to level the aggregate. Should be compelling stuff....

Full recap of first knockout phase results tomorrow, and examination of the quarterfinal draw on Friday.

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