Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Champions League Semifinals

Before I get to forecasting tonight's main attraction at the Nou Camp, a few thoughts on last night's Liverpool-Chelsea first leg.

- Liverpool were the better team after the first half hour, following a familiar pattern of allowing the visitors to take the game to them early at Anfield, only to absorb the onslaught and turn the possession and momentum in their favor.  Then they got their customary fortunate bounce on Javier Mascherano's whiffed attempt on goal that landed perfectly poised for the ever-opportunistic Dirk Kuyt to capitalize on.  The 2nd half was all Liverpool, as Chelsea struggled to gain any fluid build-up and the home side does what they do at Anfield with a lead: play confident football.  The only suspense seemed to be whether Liverpool would carry a one or two goal advantage to Stamford Bridge.

- Chelsea deserve credit for not conceding a 2nd goal, something Liverpool were pushing hard for, but was never allowed thanks to the stingy goalkeeping of Petr Cech.  

- Riise's blunder was the ultimate calamity.  1-1 headed back to London, with the Chelsea supporters just able to taste a first appearance in the Champions League final.  They must believe that they can grind out  scoreless draw or victory at "the fortress," where they haven't lost in nearly four years.  But a score draw and lookout Chelsea, the Liverpool mystique in Europe could bounce up and bite you again on penalties if you're not careful.

- Finally, just as it looked like Liverpool were once again leading the charmed European life, the shocking own goal occurred in the 95th minute.  This never happens to Liverpool, let alone in Champions League play, let alone at Anfield.  I can't help but think that the bad karma of Hicks's presence on the grounds had something to do with the unprecedented Riise event.


Barcelona v. Manchester United
If Arsenal - Milan was a glamour matchup in the first knockout stage, this matchup is ultra-glamorous, as it comes in the semifinals and is between two similar giants of European football.  The first leg is tonight in Spain, where thousands of Mancunians have traveled with sturdy belief that they will be able to produce a result or a score draw.  Either way, United have to feel confident going into this tie, simply because they are in form and Barcelona are not.  And, having the second leg at Old Trafford is the ultimate confidence booster.  But, with all the signs and trends pointing to a Manchester United spot in Moscow, there is reason for belief out of the Nou Camp.  Messi returns, for one, which could be a huge boost for Barca, who are without Ronaldinho and seem to be losing the mercurial Brazilian next season.  While the league is all but conceded to Real Madrid domestically, Barcelona are just two good games away from appearing in Moscow and having a real chance at another Champions League trophy- their 2nd in three years.  Messi is said to have no chance of making a real impact, due to his lengthy injury absence, but he is such a dynamic player and wizard with the ball in attack, that I believe he could really break down United at the back, both at home and at Old Trafford.  Barca need Deco and Eto'o and Iniesta and perhaps Henry to compliment Messi's spirit and flare if they are to bounce United out of the tournament.  Conversely, United need steady performances from Rio Ferdinand, Scholes, Nani, Anderson, and of course Ronaldo.  But Wayne Rooney appears to bear the brunt of the burden for Manchester United's success in this semifinal.  
Aggregate Prediction:  4-3 Barcelona

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