Champions League Semifinals Review

The 2008 UEFA Champions League Final is set: Manchester United v. Chelsea.

Manchester United earned an expected win over Barcelona, in front of the home fans at Old Trafford. The goal from Paul Scholes midway through the first half proved too much for the Catalonian side to overcome. It came at a crucial juncture though, as Barcelona were clearly the more aggressive and dangerous side in the opening quarter-hour, so when Scholes scored against the run of play, it provided a much needed boost of confidence for United and allowed them to settle in and sit back in stingy defense for the remainder of the game.

Barcelona simply need more creative support for Messi in the final third, as they maintain possession better than anyone (except maybe Arsenal), but often fail to create legitimate chances. Messi, for my money, is still the best attacker in the world, a player who on every touch has you literally holding your breath anticipating something fantastic. Cristiano Ronaldo may be a more complete player, but it's Messi for me. At the end of the day though, Barca need to get their house in order this offseason, by shipping Ronaldinho, re-signing Rijkaard, and building towards the future around Messi, Bojan, Deco, Iniesta, et. al. Their nucleus is still strong, if not overly youthful, but they need a fresh confidence about them if they're to unseat Real Madrid in la Liga next year.

Meanwhile, United are poised for a historic Double, as they await Chelsea in the Champions League Final, and must fend off the same West London rivals down the stretch in the EPL.

In the Chelsea-Liverpool second leg, the result was not shocking, after Riise did all he could to oust Liverpool at the end of the first leg with his calamitous own-goal. (Liverpool were owed some bad luck, after all the good luck they enjoyed against Arsenal....) However, the manner in which the result arrived was shocking, with five goals scored in the second leg. Chelsea won on aggregate 4-3, and you could watch six or seven matches between these two clubs normally and not see seven goals. And in the end, the fortress that is Stamford Bridge refused to yield a poor result and the Blues moved one step closer to the Roman Abramovic dream of European glory (and how fitting that his chance to win the Champions League will be in Moscow).

Wednesday, May 21 will be an exciting evening of European football played by two English powerhouses for the ultimate club competition trophy.

Chelsea - Liverpool

Chelsea are very tough to beat at Stamford Bridge, if not impossible. Liverpool seemingly never lose in Europe before the Champions League Final. Something has to give tonight. Chelsea, with all their resources and focus on success in Europe, should finally break through at home.

It will be Chelsea - Manchester United in the first all-England UEFA Champions League Final.

Chelsea goes through on 0-0 draw.

Manchester United v. Barcelona

The Champions League Final will be set in the next two days, d will we have an all-England final game, or an enticing matchup between two great giants of the EPL and La Liga? Tonight's second leg semifinal at Old Trafford looms as the more intriguing of the two semifinals, if not least because the winner will likely be the punters' favorite to win the European crown in Moscow.

Man U have to be considered slight favorites tonight, entering the Theatre of Dreams on level terms with Barcelona, 0-0, and poised to let their rabid fans witness their passage into a Champions League Final for the first time in nine years. Even without Vidic and possibly without Wayne Rooney, United will play like a different side tonight at home than the boxed-in eleven we saw at Nou Camp. Expect the United midfield to want to play end to end, and to see Ronaldo take some chances from outside the area, as well as make aggressive runs from all over the pitch. If Rooney is absent, Carlos Tevez could be key up front, and I could see him outshining his more notable countrymen on the other side, if he's able to find the ball at his feet with room to work near the area.

Eto'o and Messi are rested and fit for Barcelona, and will certainly be the focal points in attack, as Deco, Iniesta, Xavi and Abidal will look to provide service for their potent strikers. Messi particularly, should benefit from not seeing any game action at the weekend, and could just cause United fans some heart attacks early if he's able to make runs at United from the right side. Cristiano Ronaldo may be world footballer of the year, but for my money there is not a more dangerous attacker in the world with the ball at his feet than Leonel Messi.

It should be a riveting affair, and I believe it's a fool's task to try and pick a score. But if you said I must predict an outcome because life depended on it, I would say 2-1 Manchester United. Barcelona dominated possession in the first leg, but probably won't as the away team, thus United will grow in confidence early, and will be able to take advantage of a somewhat suspect Barca defence, and find two goals. My guess is Barca may even score first, or if not will have the score level at 1-1 and have the Old Trafford sweating, only to see a period of extended pressure result in the decixive goal at about the 70th minute. There, a real prediction! But don't bet your life on it.

FSC World Club Rankings

Fox Soccer has published their club world rankings ...



http://msn.foxsports.com/soccer/story/3412562/Fox-Soccer-Rankings

The top five:

1. Manchester United
2. Inter Milan
3. Real Madrid
4. Chelsea
5. Bayern Munich

As you can tell from the top five, Fox is using current standing in domestic leagues as barometer for club success, instead of current form with all competitions considered. It's obviously an extremely subjective enterprise to rank clubs around the world, so one measure is as good as another, but I would probably argue for international cup competition standing (UCL) to be factored in with as much weight as domestic league standing. In that vein, I would list my top five right now as:

1. Manchester United
2. Chelsea
3. Barcelona
4. Real Madrid
5. Roma

Despite Real's thorough domination of La Liga, I have Barcelona ahead of them for getting to the UCL semifinals, and similarly in Italy, I have Roma ahead of Inter based on performance in Champions League. That said, domestic performance still matters, as evidenced by my placing Real Madrid ahead of Roma, who beat them in the Champions League.

EPL presence in Champions League

For the second straight year, three of the four semifinalists in Europe's most prestigious intercontinental club competition, the UEFA Champions League, are from England's Premiere League. Chelsea, Liverpool, and Manchester United are on the doorstep of the big stage again, and according to Yahoo Sports' Martin Rogers, it's a situation the rest of the world may have to accept as an inevitability in the future.

Champions League Semifinals

Before I get to forecasting tonight's main attraction at the Nou Camp, a few thoughts on last night's Liverpool-Chelsea first leg.

- Liverpool were the better team after the first half hour, following a familiar pattern of allowing the visitors to take the game to them early at Anfield, only to absorb the onslaught and turn the possession and momentum in their favor.  Then they got their customary fortunate bounce on Javier Mascherano's whiffed attempt on goal that landed perfectly poised for the ever-opportunistic Dirk Kuyt to capitalize on.  The 2nd half was all Liverpool, as Chelsea struggled to gain any fluid build-up and the home side does what they do at Anfield with a lead: play confident football.  The only suspense seemed to be whether Liverpool would carry a one or two goal advantage to Stamford Bridge.

- Chelsea deserve credit for not conceding a 2nd goal, something Liverpool were pushing hard for, but was never allowed thanks to the stingy goalkeeping of Petr Cech.  

- Riise's blunder was the ultimate calamity.  1-1 headed back to London, with the Chelsea supporters just able to taste a first appearance in the Champions League final.  They must believe that they can grind out  scoreless draw or victory at "the fortress," where they haven't lost in nearly four years.  But a score draw and lookout Chelsea, the Liverpool mystique in Europe could bounce up and bite you again on penalties if you're not careful.

- Finally, just as it looked like Liverpool were once again leading the charmed European life, the shocking own goal occurred in the 95th minute.  This never happens to Liverpool, let alone in Champions League play, let alone at Anfield.  I can't help but think that the bad karma of Hicks's presence on the grounds had something to do with the unprecedented Riise event.

Barcelona v. Manchester United

If Arsenal - Milan was a glamour matchup in the first knockout stage, this matchup is ultra-glamorous, as it comes in the semifinals and is between two similar giants of European football.  The first leg is tonight in Spain, where thousands of Mancunians have traveled with sturdy belief that they will be able to produce a result or a score draw.  Either way, United have to feel confident going into this tie, simply because they are in form and Barcelona are not.  And, having the second leg at Old Trafford is the ultimate confidence booster.  But, with all the signs and trends pointing to a Manchester United spot in Moscow, there is reason for belief out of the Nou Camp.  Messi returns, for one, which could be a huge boost for Barca, who are without Ronaldinho and seem to be losing the mercurial Brazilian next season.  While the league is all but conceded to Real Madrid domestically, Barcelona are just two good games away from appearing in Moscow and having a real chance at another Champions League trophy- their 2nd in three years.  Messi is said to have no chance of making a real impact, due to his lengthy injury absence, but he is such a dynamic player and wizard with the ball in attack, that I believe he could really break down United at the back, both at home and at Old Trafford.  Barca need Deco and Eto'o and Iniesta and perhaps Henry to compliment Messi's spirit and flare if they are to bounce United out of the tournament.  Conversely, United need steady performances from Rio Ferdinand, Scholes, Nani, Anderson, and of course Ronaldo.  But Wayne Rooney appears to bear the brunt of the burden for Manchester United's success in this semifinal.  

Aggregate Prediction:  4-3 Barcelona

Manchester United - Arsenal

Tonight is Arsenal's last chance to salvage their season, with Champions League hopes dashed and Premier League chances hanging by a thread. A win at Old Trafford would bring the Gunners within three points of United with four to play, and would set up a dramatic finish between United, Chelsea and Arsenal.

As much as this scenario would be thrilling from an observer's view, it is unlikely to materialize, as Arsenal will probably not be able to go into Old Trafford and steal three points this evening. Flamini is out injured, though so too is Vidic for Man Utd. Both teams will look to exploit the other's weakened defense with two of the most potent and dangerous attacks in the world, but Arsenal's defense is more of a liability at the moment and thus look poised to conced at least one goal, if not two or three this evening. Playing on the road, Arsenal's only hopes for victory are in 1-0 or possibly 2-1 scorelines, but forecasting only once concession to the flying Uniteds would be a dicey proposition. Arsenal's back four have been inconsistent all season, but were sorely responsible for their gutting defeat at Anfield in Champions League last Tuesday. It all falls on Senderos, Toure, Gallas and Clichy again tonight, to keep United out of the net and to save Arsenal's season.

Don't hold your breath.

Arsenal - Liverpool

Gutted. That is the only word to describe how the Gunners must be feeling after suffering defeat at Anfield in the cruelest fashion. A riveting game that saw momentum change sides numerous times, the final shift looked to have occurred seven minutes from time, when Arsenal super-sub (I think it's safe to call him that) Theo Walcott bolted on an end-to-end run unlike any I've seen all year, and set up the game-tying, quarterfinal clinching goal for Emmanuel Adebayor. The beautiful bit of brilliance that made the game 2-2 and 3-3 on aggregate, with Arsenal poised to advance on away goals, seemingly came out of nowhere, and had the Anfield crowd stunned in shocked silence.... for all of 50 seconds. Because no sooner had Arsenal trotted back to their side of the pitch had Liverpool advanced the ball forward and found Ryan Babel in space, bringing teh ball wrecklessly and desperately into the area when, inexplicably, Kolo Toure put an outstretched arm to Babel, and the ref took the subsequent bait when Babel went down in the box, awarding Liverpool a penalty. Arsenal were done and dusted even before Steven Gerrard punched home the decisive penalty, and I can only imagine the swings of emotion that occurred for both sides in those sudden moments near the end of the game.

Of course it shouldn't have been a penalty, especially when you consider the penalty that wasn't awarded on Alexander Hleb in the first leg in London. But still, what was Toure grabbing at Babel when Gallas was waiting calmly to eschew the threat. And how did Arsenal even allow Babel to advance into such a position so quickly after kicking off? Had even one minute elapsed after the Adebayor equalizer, Liverpool would certainly have succumbed to the pressure that would have hovered over the Anfield pitch like a silent storm in the final minutes. But Arsenal's defense, suspect all season, unfathomably allowed Liverpool to counterstrike immediately. And now Liverpool, soldiers of fortune, soldier on to the semifinal, where undoubtedly more breaks and luck await them.

Height of Rivalry?

There are countless club rivalries across the globe, and the debate for which derby between rivals of the same city is a futile exercise, as rarely do fans concede that another rivalry is more compelling than their own. Of the fiercest rivalries that include Celtic-Rangers, Milan-Inter, Tottenham-Arsenal, Roma-Lazio, Liverpool-Everton, one stands out in my eyes as the fiercest and most compelling of all: Boca Juniors-River Plate. The Buenos Aires rivals, separated by mere miles, are unquestionably the two biggest clubs in Argentina, and though the sprawling populace have other clubs to support in the capital (Independiente, San Lorenzo, Racing, Velez, etc), Boca and River command the majority of the love from portenos. The rivalry is intense each and every year, but it reaches an even higher pitch in seasons when both clubs are contending for the title. More than half way through this year's Clausura, Boca and River are both undefeated, and within three points of each other at the top of the table. Recent champions Estudiantes La Plata and San Lorenzo are also contending for the title, making this run for the Clausura a riveting race between the country's top four clubs. But the rivalry between Boca and River, with each without a loss, is the story, and must be followed closely. The rivals meet in two weeks time, and you can bet there will be a ton of anticipation to the superclasico. This derby of all derbys, possibly the best rivalry in club football anywhere in the world, wcould reach its height in the coming weeks. We'll be back in a few days with more thoughts and anticipation.

Champions League Quarterfinals

I was unable to provide a preview for yesterday's quarterfinal first leg matches, which saw Barcelona win at Schalke 04 1-0 and Manchester United score a tie-clinching 2-0 away victory in Rome. So a quick review of those matches before we preview today's other two first legs.

Schalke 04 v. Barcelona (0 - 1 first leg)
Barcelona limped into this Champions League fixture against Schalke, with manager Frank Rijkaard coming under fire for the team's recent form. It is hard to place all the blame on Rijkaard, with injured Lionel Messi (their most important player in this blog's opinion) out the last several weeks, but then again, it's hard not to blame a coach when a team of this much talent fails to live up to its promise. So the day began with Barca supporters mired in frustration, and ended with a bit of a reprieve for Rijkaard, as wunderkind (and future Messi, perhaps) Bojan Krkic scored a vital away goal to all but ensure Barcelona's passage to the semifinals, as they return home to the Nou Camp with a 1-0 lead over the German side. All is still not well for Barca, but a dream semifinal against Manchester United will surely envigorate the populace and have people believing in this side's potential once again.

Roma v. Manchester United (0 -2 first leg)
Anyone who glanced at this result without seeing the game might come away saying "Manchester United are really dominant right now, they are the favorites to win it all," and he wouldn't be far off. However, as impressive a result as this is (and make no mistake, winniing 2-0 over Roma at the Stadio Olimpico in front of a rabid fan base is no small feat to accomplish), it would be better to characterize United as "opportunistic" rather than "dominant." Roma, playing without their maestro Totti, actually were more threatening, and seemed to carry over confidence from their impressive besting of Real Madrid. But the chances just weren't ending in finishes, and Totti's absence likely caused a lack of killer instinct in the final third, as well as a lack of imagination. On the other end, one moment of brilliance in the 39th minute by Cristiano Ronaldo (and Paul Scholes with the assist) produced a backbreaking goal against the run of play, and you could just sense the air being sucked out of the stadium, even without the id of high-definition. The second half saw more chances for Roma, some great goalkeeping by Van der Saar, and a cheap goal for Rooney that again came against the run of play. But, it must be said, United did deserve the win, as they were stern and stingy in defense, and very opportunistic in attack, and the end result was a beautiful reward of a 2-0 away goals lead for the return trip to Old Trafford. United are not without their vulnerabilities, but they are definitely the deepest and most in form team in both England and Europe at the moment. Their biggest asset is just how hard they are to beat, specifically in a two-legged tie. They resemble Liverpool's European form of recent years in that regard. Many are already dreaming of a Man Utd v. Liverpool Champions League final. I wouldn't rule it out, as much as it pains me to say.

Now, with Tuesday's results briefly recounted, let's preview today's first leg fixtures.

Fenerbahce v. Chelsea
I severely underestimated teh Turkish side in the round of 16 against Sevilla, and they proved me wrong by winning in fantastic fashion, on penalties after a 5-5 aggregate through two legs. They get to play host to Chelsea today, and will hope for a similarly bright start to the tie as they got versus Sevilla, when they won at home 3-2. Of course, they would prefer to give up zero away goals to the Blues, as scoring in Stamford Bridge will be a tougher proposition than scoring at the Mestalla. Chelsea have to be the favorites, just because of their impenetrable form at home. They will likely play it close to the vest today, and look for a 0-0 draw, or possibly look to catch Fenerbahce on the counter. Still, Fenerhbahce have proved so dangerous going forward with Lugano, Alex, Kezman and leading goalscorer, Deivid, that I do see them breaking through in front of the home crowd...unfortunately, I also see Drogba hitting them once on the counter and the first leg ending in a 1-1 draw.

Arsenal v. Liverpool
Everyone's favorite quarterfinal matchup kicks off today at the Emirates. Liverpool have the advantage clearly, because they play the return leg at Anfield, and because this is, after all, the Champions League, where they have been in two finals in the past three years, winning once. Rafa Benitez just knows how to win in Champions League, and it would be unwise to pick against his side in this matchup, especially because Arsenal are so young. There are very few players left over from the team that played in the Champions League final two years ago - this Gunners side is much younger. They are also more vibrant, and arguably play a more attractive style of football than did the Henry-led team of two years back. Still, pundits and analysts all contend that Arsenal peaked several weeks ago, and they are probably correct. The fact is, Arsenal are razor thin, and even now are forced to start a still-not-100% Robin van Persie up front. They are still in sore need of Tomas Rosicky's presence out right, as the platoon of Eboue, Walcott, and Diaby just has not been as potent or as imaginitive in attack as the Czech international. Adebayor's goal scoring flair has gone missing, and the horrific injury to Eduardo still haunts them. Hleb, Febregas, and Flamini are all still wondrous, but have got to be exhausted from all the minutes played. Stalwart left back Sagna is out injured, and suddenly there are chinks in the armor at back with Gallas and Toure. This is a wounded Arsenal team, and Liverpool, as mediocre as they are in the Premiership, look poised to pounce all over them in this Champions League quarterfinal. Fernando Torres would be player of the year in England if not for Ronaldo at United, and Benitez seems to have suddenly figured out his rotation policy, with Babel getting consistent starts up front, and Mascherano thriving as CDM (despite his outbursts at Old Trafford). Gerrard and Kuyt are playing relaxed and stylish, and overall this team appears rested. Benitez hears all season long about his rotation depriving the team of rhythm or consistent play (a fair charge), but no one can deny that this policy allows his side to be more rested and more fit at the end of the campaign, specifically at the end of the Champions League.
It's a fascinating matchup between two English giants who have never before met in the Champions League, if you can believe that, but one that I see going against the Gunners, unfortunately. Liverpool wins both legs, and possibly three in a row, over the sagging, hurting Arsenal. 4-1 aggregate.

So I see a Manchester United v. Barcelona and Chelsea v. Liverpool semifinals of the '08 Champions League.

Keep watching!